Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 15.184099 17.247349 19.605123 22.524937 26.080323 30.317536 35.823915
2025-06-01 12.435703 14.976106 18.133468 22.432116 28.273627 36.159189 48.030590
2025-06-08 10.657691 13.301765 16.764680 21.779006 29.122422 39.966253 58.252747
2025-06-15 9.596300 12.325025 16.054336 21.740618 30.626947 44.861475 71.629297
2025-06-22 8.491608 11.123826 14.829769 20.692705 30.302872 46.680858 80.287709
2025-06-29 7.576357 10.078842 13.685390 19.561827 29.577052 47.557936 87.386433
2025-07-06 6.913073 9.327179 12.882199 18.836974 29.370705 49.272773 96.929868
2025-07-13 7.025209 9.717894 13.838757 21.097614 34.864199 63.582678 144.332496
2025-07-20 6.795520 9.561592 13.908678 21.842716 37.670725 73.266182 187.374087
2025-07-27 6.341002 9.014302 13.284007 21.249477 37.654969 76.394721 212.282205
2025-08-03 6.163562 8.891047 13.349112 21.934526 40.470328 87.620783 278.915297
2025-08-10 5.841720 8.508026 12.933142 21.638445 41.048086 93.078458 328.545014
2025-08-17 5.528214 8.131666 12.521546 21.352838 41.732234 99.595889 396.964020
2025-08-24 5.271725 7.833723 12.225010 21.267858 42.912016 108.358747 498.741380
2025-08-31 4.967765 7.434196 11.710052 20.660736 42.649650 112.274325 578.904176
2025-09-07 4.767721 7.199468 11.477356 20.625043 43.883084 122.266849 744.490296
2025-09-14 4.464832 6.768492 10.846937 19.649935 42.375259 121.162308 799.830173
2025-09-21 4.174840 6.346129 10.207338 18.596139 40.486136 117.925409 826.491902
2025-09-28 3.951859 6.031367 9.753742 17.919854 39.573796 118.555780 913.182657
2025-10-05 4.067616 6.322440 10.481771 20.026868 47.340942 163.269838 2181.502599
2025-10-12 4.013860 6.303489 10.599841 20.719978 51.026389 192.627859 4023.112203
2025-10-19 3.837242 6.049562 10.227782 20.168187 50.465766 197.583513 5086.646687
2025-10-26 3.787365 6.027544 10.325701 20.805337 54.185288 233.235120 11565.459386